There is a whole lot more going on in the Atlantic in addition to Dorian, with a total of four other disturbances to monitor.
Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven
The first is Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven (PTC 7), located in the southwest Gulf of Mexico (see figure 1).
PTC 7 is not a tropical depression or storm yet, hence the PTC designation. However, it should become our next named storm, Fernand, at some point today or tomorrow.
Right now, it doesn’t look like PTC 7 will become anything too significant, and a track into northeast Mexico appears most likely (see figure 2).
With that being said, south Texas will likely get some rain and rough surf.
Invest 91L
The second is Invest 91L, which is way out in the Atlantic, a few hundred miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands (see figure 3).
Invest 91L has a high chance of development – 90 percent over both next next 2 and 5 days per the National Hurricane Center (NHC) – and a tropical cyclone is likely to form later today or tomorrow.
However, Invest 91L is not a threat to the U.S., or any landmasses for that matter.
Invest 92L
The third is Invest 92L southwest of Bermuda, which the NHC has given 92L a 40 percent chance of development over both the next 2 and 5 days.
Model guidance isn’t really impressed, though.
With that being said, regardless of development, Invest 92L will impact Bermuda tomorrow and Thursday.
Tropical wave over Africa
The fourth is a tropical wave set to move off of Africa tomorrow.
Model guidance, including the ECMWF, GFS, and UKMET, are all predicting some development late this week and this weekend as it tracks west to west-northwest across the open Atlantic.
The NHC has put the chance of development at 60 percent over the next 5 days.
Obviously, if a TC does form, it is too early to say if it will be a threat to the Caribbean or United States.
Although, it is worth noting that model guidance does suggest that this wave could make it farther west than Invest 91L.
