Dorian Moving Away From Florida

Figure 1. Forecast maximum wind gusts through Friday evening. Image: weathermodels.com
Figure 1. Forecast maximum wind gusts through Friday evening. Image: weathermodels.com

Dorian is now moving away from Florida.

6 PM EDT advisory info

As of the 6 PM EDT intermediate advisory, Dorian had maximum sustained winds of 110 mph, a minimum central pressure of 961 millibars, and was tracking to the north-northwest at 8 mph.

Track

Dorian will turn north tonight, then northeast tomorrow.

Figure 2. Latest forecast track for Dorian from the National Hurricane Center.

The center of of the storm will pass very near, if not over, coastal South Carolina and North Carolina tomorrow through Friday.

Intensity

Dorian is currently a category 2 hurricane. The official forecast is for a gradual decrease in intensity starting tomorrow afternoon, but for Dorian to remain a category 2 through Friday.

However, it is very possible Dorian could briefly regain major hurricane strength (category 3 or higher) over the next 12 – 24 hours.

Impacts

Tropical-storm-force winds, a storm surge of 3 – 5′, and heavy rain will continue to occur in northeast Florida into the overnight, and across coastal Georgia through at least tomorrow morning.

Figure 3. Storm surge forecast for Dorian. Image: National Hurricane Center

For SC and NC, hurricane-force winds, a storm surge of 5 – 8′, and heavy rain will occur tomorrow/Friday.

Also, with Dorian now forecast to pass very near/over coastal SC/NC, high winds and a storm surge of 2 – 4′  are now expected for southeast Virginia Friday.

Caleb Carmichael
Caleb Carmichael

Caleb is the owner of Gulf Coast Storm Center. He is currently an undergraduate student at Mississippi State University majoring in geoscience with a concentration in broadcast and operational meteorology. While not yet a meteorologist, Caleb has been providing weather updates, news, and analysis for the Gulf Coast since 2014.

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