Dorian Still a Category 3; Likely to Pass Very Near, or Over, Coast of North Carolina Tonight

Figure 1. IR satellite image of Dorian from 9:22 AM EDT Thursday, September 5, 2019. Image: Tropical Tidbits

Dorian remains at major hurricane strength this morning, and is now just ~ 45 miles off the coast of South Carolina.

As of 9:00 AM EDT, max sustained winds were 115 mph, with a minimum central pressure of 959 mb. Movement was to the north-northeast at 8 mph.

Track

The center of Dorian will pass very near the upper coast of South Carolina this afternoon, and very near/over the coast of North Carolina overnight/early Friday.

Figure 2. Latest forecast track for Dorian from the National Hurricane Center.

By the second half of the day Friday, Dorian will start to accelerate off to the northeast, away from the United States.

Intesnity

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is forecasting Dorian to start to steadily weaken at some point today.

However, it is possible Dorian could maintain category 3 intensity into tonight, which is what the GFS, ECMWF and the high-resolution hurricane models such as the HWRF are predicting.

Impacts

High winds (up to hurricane-force), storm surge and heavy rain will continue for portions the SC coast into tonight.

Figure 3. Wind impact graphic for Dorian from the National Weather Service.

Hurricane-force winds, storm surge and heavy rains will being to impact NC by this evening.

Tropical storm conditions are also for southeast Virginia Friday.

There is also a tornado threat, with at least one tornado having already been reported in North Myrtle Beach, SC early this morning.

Caleb Carmichael
Caleb Carmichael

Caleb is the owner of Gulf Coast Storm Center. He is currently an undergraduate student at Mississippi State University majoring in geoscience with a concentration in broadcast and operational meteorology. While not yet a meteorologist, Caleb has been providing weather updates, news, and analysis for the Gulf Coast since 2014.

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