There are currently three different systems to watch in the Atlantic: Tropical Storm Gabrielle, an invest (94L), and a trough of low pressure northeast of the Lesser Antilles.
Gabrielle
Formation of Gabrielle last week near the Cabo Verde Islands was overshadowed by Dorian.
Gabrielle is presently located way out in the middle of the open Atlantic, and should become post-tropical Tuesday/Wednesday.
Invest 94L
The chance of Invest 94L developing has decreased since our last update.
As of their 8 AM EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) put the chance of development at 10 percent over the next 2 days, and 40 percent over the next 5 days, respectively.
There is no longer any real model support – including from the GFS. Additionally, the SHIPS model is predicting dry air to increase Tuesday.
However, wind shear is low, convective activity has increased, and an ASCAT pass yesterday revealed a closed low-level circulation; therefore, tropical cyclone (TC) formation can’t be ruled out.
Should 94L become a TC, it is still too early to determine if it would be a concern for the U.S. or Caribbean.
Trough of low pressure
The NHC is now giving a trough of low pressure, currently located northeast of the Lesser Antilles, a 20 percent chance of development over the next 5 days.
Immediate development is unlikely due to some strong wind shear. But toward the end of this week, a decrease in shear could allow for some organization in the southwest Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico.
Model support is low at this time. Although, there is some support from the EPS (see figure 3).
Overall, it is nothing to be concerned about at the moment, but definitely worth keeping an eye on.
