The trough of low pressure located north of the Greater Antilles has been tagged Invest 95L.
Forecast for 95L
Wind shear should keep a lid on development for the next 2 – 3 days. However, once in the Gulf of Mexico late this week/this weekend, conditions could become more conducive for tropical cyclone (TC) genesis.
In their 8 PM EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) put the odds of 95L developing at 10 percent over the next 2 days and 40 percent over the next 5 days.
As of the 12z model cycle, the ECMWF, UKMET and GFS (see figure 2) were all predicting development.
Should 95L develop into a depression or tropical storm, exact track/intensity can’t be determined at this juncture; but based on the latest model guidance, landfall somewhere along the northern Gulf Coast early next week would be likely.
Regardless of development, unsettled weather can be expected.
Elsewhere in the Atlantic
Invest 94L is still has a low chance – 20 percent – of TC formation per the NHC. Consequently, there is an 80 percent chance that 94L won’t become a TC.
Aside from 94L, a tropical wave way out in the east Atlantic warrants monitoring.
Model guidance is in near unanimous agreement on development on approach to the Lesser Antilles late this weekend/early next week.
The NHC still has the chance of development at 20 percent over the next 5 days; though if model guidance stays consistent, expect this to change.
