It is increasingly likely that Invest 95L is going to develop and impact parts of the Gulf Coast this weekend/early next week.
Chance of development
Wind shear is still impacting 95L, and significant development is unlikely over the next day or two. However, conditions look to become more favorable by Friday/this weekend, and it is now possible 95L could develop before reaching the Gulf.
Taking a look at model guidance, the ECMWF, UKMET and GFS were all predicting development of Invest 95L as of the 12z model cycle.
In their 2 PM EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) increased the chance of development to 40 percent over the next 2 days and 60 percent over the next 5 days.
Track
Currently, it is expected that a ridge will guide 95L generally west-northwest.
This should take 95L across south or central Florida Friday/Saturday, into the eastern Gulf of Mexico Sunday, and then toward the north-central or northeast Gulf Coast early next week (see figure 2).
Intensity
A weak to moderate tropical storm is the most likely outcome as of now. Although, this might change depending on how quickly 95L is able to organize.
It is also worth noting that a track through the Florida Straits, which is possible, could result in a stronger system.
Impacts
Impacts – as well as their placement – will heavily depend on track and intensity.
