Invest 95L Getting Better Organized

Figure 1. Likely genesis area for Invest 95L from the latest Five-Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook from the National Hurricane Center.
Figure 1. Likely genesis area for Invest 95L from the latest Five-Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook from the National Hurricane Center.

Surface pressures are falling in association with Invest 95L, suggesting the system is becoming better organized.

Chance of development

Wind shear is still hampering significant development, but not completely hindering organization.

Given the rate of organization, and the fact that conditions should become more favorable for tropical cyclone (TC) formation by tomorrow, development of a tropical depression by tomorrow/Saturday is probable.

In their 8 AM EDT Tropical Weather Outlook (TWO), the National Hurricane Center increased the chance of development to 70 percent over the next 2 days and 80 percent over the next 5 days.

The NHC also stated in their 8 AM EDT TWO that potential tropical cyclone advisories might be initiated later today.

Figure 2. ECMWF showing Invest 95L as a tropical cyclone in the northern Bahamas late tomorrow. Image: Tropical Tidbits

As of the 00z model cycle, both the ECMWF (see figure 2) and UKMET predicted Invest 95L would become a TC by tomorrow.

Track

Yesterday it was near certain that Invest 95L would be guided on a generally west-northwest to northwest track across Florida and into the eastern Gulf of Mexico by a ridge of high pressure; however, this is no longer the case.

Figure 3. ECMWF ensemble tracks for Invest 95L from 00z Thursday, September 12, 2019. Image: weathernerds.org

The ECMWF, UKMET, and ECMWF ensembles (see figure 3) have shifted east overnight, while the GFS still favors the aforementioned west-northwest/northwest track.

This difference can likely be attributed to where models predict the center to form. The ECMWF/UKMET have the center forming farther north, while the GFS has it forming to the south.

Right now, it is impossible to say which solution is more correct; therefore, everyone from the north-central and northeast Gulf Coast to North Carolina should monitor Invest 95L’s progress.

Intensity

Intensity will depend heavily on track. If the ECMWF/UKMET end up being correct, we could be looking at a stronger cyclone. Conversely, if the GFS is correct we would likely be looking at a tropical storm at most.

Impacts

Invest 95L will bring heavy rains and gusty winds to the Bahamas through tomorrow, and possibly parts of south Florida late tomorrow/Saturday.

Beyond this, specific impacts and their placement remain uncertain, as we both track and intensity are unknown.

Caleb Carmichael
Caleb Carmichael

Caleb is the owner of Gulf Coast Storm Center. He is currently an undergraduate student at Mississippi State University majoring in geoscience with a concentration in broadcast and operational meteorology. While not yet a meteorologist, Caleb has been providing weather updates, news, and analysis for the Gulf Coast since 2014.

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