The Atlantic is currently very active in terms of tropical activity, with 5 different systems to keep tabs on: Tropical Storm Humberto, a new disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico, and three tropical waves.
Humberto
Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine became a tropical depression yesterday evening, and was subsequently upgraded to Tropical Storm Humberto overnight.
As of 8 AM EDT, Humberto had sustained winds of 40 mph, a minimum central pressure of 1004 millibars, and was moving northwest at 7 mph.
Model guidance is finally in agreement on a track that would keep the center of Humberto well away from the Southeast U.S. coast, with the GFS having caved Friday afternoon.
Humberto should begin to move north early Sunday. A weakness should then develop in the low/mid-level ridge currently steering the cyclone by Monday, allowing for a curve to the northeast/east.
Humberto is forecast to gradually intensify over the next 2 – 3 days, and should become a hurricane by Monday; however, an increase in shear is expected by Tuesday/Wednesday, which could induce weakening.
Gulf disturbance
In addition to Humberto, an area of disturbed weather has formed in the southeast Gulf in association with an upper-level low.
No development is expected over the next day or two. But by early next week, this area will reach the western Gulf, where there is a non-zero chance it could become a tropical cyclone (TC).
In their 8 AM EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, the National Hurricane Center put the chance of development at 30 percent.
As of the 00z model cycle, the UKMET was the only model showing significant development.
Regardless of development, heavy rain will be possible for coastal Texas.
Tropical waves
There are also three different tropical waves in the Main Development Region (MDR) that are being monitored for development.
It is likely that at least one or two of them will develop by mid/late next week.
There could be a threat to the east/northeast Caribbean. However, at this time, it does appear Humberto will create a weakness in the Bermuda high; this should allow any TCs that form from these disturbances to escape out to sea.
