Humberto has strengthened some since yesterday.
As of 5 AM EDT, maximum sustained winds were 60 mph, the minimum central pressure was 1000 mb, and movement was north-northwest at 7 mph.
Forecast for Humberto
Humberto will turn north/northeast later today, and then east Monday.
A track away from the U.S. is still looking likely.
Further intensification is still expected, and the forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) is calling for a high-end category 2 by Wednesday.
However, it is very possible Humberto could become a major hurricane.
Tropical wave in MDR
Of the three tropical waves in the Main Development Region (MDR) mentioned yesterday, it appears only the easternmost one will become a tropical cyclone (TC).
In their 8 AM EDT Tropical Weather Outlook (TWO), the NHC increased the chance of development to 70 percent over the next 5 days.
Based on the latest model guidance, as track north of the Caribbean and out to sea is still the most probable scenario.
Gulf disturbance
The chance of the Gulf disturbance develop – which was low initially – is now down from 30 percent to 10 percent per the 8 AM EDT TWO from the NHC.
The UKMET, which was the only model predicting formation of a TC yesterday, has dropped the idea of development as of the 00z model cycle.
Regardless of development, heavy rain is still anticipated across coastal Texas (see figure 4).
