The Weather Prediction Center is still issuing advisories on Tropical Depression Imelda, and was centered about 55 miles northeast of Houston, Texas as of the most recent advisory.
Forecast for Imelda
Imelda will finally move out of Texas Friday, and the risk for heavy rain and flash flooding will diminish tonight/Friday.
Jerry
A hurricane hunter aircraft found Jerry had intensified to a hurricane this morning.
As of 5 PM EDT/AST, maximum sustained wind were 90 mph, the minimum central pressure was 979 mb, and movement was west-northwest at 17 mph.
Additional strengthening is likely over the next 12 – 24 hours.
An increase in shear is expected overnight, though, and should halt intensification and cause some weakening; however, a bit of re-intensification is possible early next week.
Jerry will pass north of the Caribbean this weekend, and curve out into the Atlantic next week.
Elsewhere in the Atlantic
There are now three other disturbances to keep an eye on (see figure 3): a tropical wave in the Caribbean, another in the Main Development Region (MDR), and one that has yet to emerge off Africa.
The Caribbean disturbance is still not likely to amount to much. However, it does look like it will end up in the Gulf early next week, so it is worth keeping an eye on.
The disturbance in the MDR still has some potential to develop this weekend/early next week on approach to the Caribbean.
However, model support for development has decreased, with the GFS now being the only model predicting tropical cyclone (TC) formation as of the 12z model cycle (see figure 4).
In their 2 PM EDT Tropical Weather Outlook (TWO), the NHC kept the 5-day chance of development at 30 percent.
Should a TC form, it still doesn’t look like it will be a U.S. threat.
The wave still over Africa will be one to really watch.
The ECMWF, UKMET and GFS are in unanimous agreement on TC genesis over the MDR this weekend/early next week, with the most recent runs of the ECMWF and GFS both fairly aggressive, showing a hurricane.
In their 2 PM EDT TWO, the NHC put the 5-day development chance at 40 percent.
If this wave does develop, which is looking likely at this point, it is too early to say if it will pose a threat to the U.S. or Caribbean.
