Tropical Update: Watching Northwest Caribbean, Gulf for Development

Figure 1. Five-Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook from the National Hurricane Center for the broad low in the northwest Caribbean as of 8 AM EDT October 1, 2019.
Figure 1. Five-Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook from the National Hurricane Center for the broad low in the northwest Caribbean as of 8 AM EDT October 1, 2019.

A broad area of low pressure has formed in the northwest Caribbean Sea.

Because of a 25 – 30 knot ribbon of shear, near-term development is unlikely

As of the 00z model cycle, neither the ECMWF, UKMET or GFS were predicting any development between now and this weekend.

In their 8 AM EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, the National Hurricane Center put the 5-day development chance at 10 percent (see figure 1).

While development is unlikely through this weekend, it is possible environmental conditions could become more conducive for development early to mid next week, when the low will have moved into the Gulf of Mexico.

Both the 00z run of the ECMWF and UKMET did predict some development between Monday and Wednesday of next week.

Figure 2. EPS predicted MSLP and tropical low positions valid late Monday evening. Each low represents a different EPS member. Image: weathernerds.org

Additionally, as of the 00z run of the EPS (ECMWF ensemble), there were quite a few ensemble members with a tropical cyclone (TC) in the Gulf next week (see figure 2).

If a TC were to form, which is not too likely at this time, it would be too early to speculate on where it might track or how strong it could become.

Caleb Carmichael
Caleb Carmichael

Caleb is the owner of Gulf Coast Storm Center. He is currently an undergraduate student at Mississippi State University majoring in geoscience with a concentration in broadcast and operational meteorology. While not yet a meteorologist, Caleb has been providing weather updates, news, and analysis for the Gulf Coast since 2014.

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