Tropical development is a possibility in the northwest Caribbean this weekend/early next week.
Broad area of low pressure to form in west Caribbean
A broad area of low pressure is likely to form in the southwest Caribbean Saturday or Sunday, and move into the northwest Caribbean by Monday.
If the low doesn’t move inland over Central America, there is a chance it could become a tropical cyclone (TC).
As of the 00z model cycle, the GFS was the only reliable model predicting TC formation.
In their 8 AM EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) put the 5-day development chance at 20 percent.
By mid to late next week, the GFS, ECMWF and several EPS (ECMWF ensemble) members predict that this system will move into the Bay of Campeche.
However, it is not known if the feature will be a TC upon moving into the Bay of Campeche; the GFS is predicting it to be a TC (see figure 2), while the ECMWF is not.
While the ECMWF is not predicting development in either the west/northwest Caribbean or Bay of Campeche, there is support for development in the Bay of Campeche from the EPS in the Bay of Campeche next week.
So, if the low does not develop this weekend/early next week, it could do so toward the second half of next week.
Invest 93L could become a subtropical cyclone today
Elsewhere, an area of low pressure (Invest 93L) off the Mid-Atlantic could become a (sub)tropical cyclone later today.
In their 8 AM EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, the NHC has put the chance of development at 60 percent over both the next 2 and 5 days, and noted advisories may be initiated later today.
Currently this system is stationary, but will accelerate east, away from the U.S., Saturday.
