A broad area of low pressure has formed over Central America.
Because of land interaction, development is unlikely over the next three days or so.
However, the low will move into the Bay of Campeche by mid to late week, and environmental conditions could be conducive enough for tropical development.
Development chance
In their 2 PM EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) kept the chance of development at 20 percent over the next five days.
Model guidance
There has been a clear trend in the model guidance toward TC development in the Bay of Campeche/western Gulf later this week.
As of the 12z model cycle, the ECMWF (see figure 2), UKMET and GFS were all predicting tropical cyclone (TC) formation from this low in the Bay of Campeche/western Gulf by Friday.
Additionally, there was a strong signal for development from the ECMWF and GFS ensembles as of the 12z model cycle.
Track and Intensity
While it is unknown if this system will develop tropically, it does appear likely an upper-level trough will pull it north or northeast toward the north-central Gulf Coast this weekend.
A strong system is not likely. The most probable range of outcomes is a weak area of low pressure at minimum to a tropical storm at most.
Impacts
Regardless of development, a surge of tropical moisture can be expected, and could result in beneficial, or even excessive, rainfall across the drought-stricken South (see figure 3).
Summary
- There is a 20 percent chance of tropical development in the Bay of Campeche/western Gulf later this week.
- A weak system (anywhere from a broad low to tropical depression/storm) with a track toward the north-central Gulf Coast is likely.
- Beneficial/excessive rainfall is forecast.
