The risk for tropical or subtropical development in the western Gulf late this week is increasing.
A broad area of low pressure centered Central America is going to emerge into the Bay of Campeche Wednesday.
Conditions are currently conducive for tropical development in the Bay of Campeche, and are forecast to remain favorable through Thursday/Friday.
Chance of development
In their 8 PM EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) put the chance of a tropical or subtropical cyclone forming over the western Gulf within the next 5 days at 40 percent – up from 20 percent yesterday.
Model guidance
As of the 12z model cycle, the ECMWF, GFS and UKMET were in unanimous agreement on development of this low in the western Gulf between Wednesday and Friday.
Additionally, there was still a strong signal for development from the ECMWF and GFS ensembles.
Track and intensity
It remains likely that this system will be pulled north/northeast, toward the north-central Gulf Coast, this weekend by an approaching upper-level trough/front.
However, dry air and shear should keep intensity in check, meaning this system likely won’t become any stronger than a tropical or subtropical storm should it develop.
Regardless of the outcome (weak low, tropical storm, or subtropical storm), a heavy rain/flash flood threat is shaping up for the northern Gulf Coast this weekend.
Also, depending on how much development occurs, both coastal flooding and gusty winds could also be an issue.
Summary
- The risk of tropical or subtropical development in the western Gulf later this week is increasing, but development is not a guarantee.
- A track toward the north-central Gulf Coast is still likely.
- If a tropical or subtropical cyclone were to form, a combination of dry air and wind shear should prevent significant strengthening.
- Impacts for the north-central Gulf Coast this weekend are likely regardless of any tropical or subtropical development.
