Advisories were initiated on Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen (PTC 16) by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) at 10 AM CDT this morning.
4 PM CDT advisory info
As of 4 PM CDT, PTC 16 had maximum sustained winds of 40 mph, a minimum central pressure of 1005 mb, and was moving north-northeast at 9 mph.
Track
Model guidance is in excellent agreement on PTC 16 coming ashore between Destin, FL and Apalachicola, FL Friday night/early Saturday, and this is reflected in the latest NHC forecast cone.
Intensity
While a combination of wind shear and dry air is still expected to limit intensification, it won’t be enough to prevent gradual strengthening over the next day or so.
The official forecast from the NHC is for PTC 16 to acquire the name Nestor tonight, and intensify to a 50 mph tropical/subtropical storm by Friday evening.
However, it is possible that the NHC forecast is a bit too low, because the ECMWF, GFS, and HWRF were indicating PTC 16 could become a strong tropical storm with maximum sustained winds in the 60 – 70 mph range as of the 12z model cycle.
Impacts
Since the potential point of landfall has narrowed, it can be said with a fair amount of certainty that the Florida Panhandle will take the brunt of PTC 16.
The primary impact will be rain, but storm surge/coastal flooding is also going to be an issue. Anywhere from 2 to 5 feet of inundation is forecast.
Tropical-storm-force/gale-force winds can also be anticipated, with gusts in excess of 60 mph possible (see figure 2).
Furthermore, there will be a threat for isolated tornadoes.
Timing
Outer rain bands and tropical-storm-force wind could arrive within the tropical storm warning areas (see figure 1) as early as Friday afternoon.
