Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen (PTC 16) has yet to acquire a well-defined center of circulation, meaning it is not yet a tropical or subtropical storm.
7 AM CDT advisory info
As of 7 AM CDT, PTC 16 had maximum sustained winds of 40 mph, a minimum central pressure of 1004 mb, and was moving northeast at 21 mph.
Track and intensity
Given the tight guidance envelope (see figure 2), confidence is high for a landfall between Destin, FL and Apalachicola, FL early Saturday.
It is still expected PTC 16 will acquire enough organization to be upgraded to a tropical or subtropical storm later today.
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is still calling for a peak intensity of 50 mph, but it is possible PTC 16 could become a bit stronger.
Impacts
Based on the latest radar and model data, it is likely southeast Louisiana, southeast Mississippi, and southwest Alabama won’t see much, if any, impact from PTC 16.
In the Florida Panhandle, heavy rain, tropical-storm-force winds with gusts in excess of 60 mph (see figure 3), and a storm surge of 2 to 5 feet can be expected. In addition, there will be an isolated tornado threat.
Timing
Outer rain bands should begin to move onshore late this morning and early this afternoon. Tropical-storm-force winds could arrive as early as late afternoon/early this evening.
