The tropical wave mentioned in yesterday’s update has moved into the Bay of Campeche; it has also been tagged Invest 97L.
Surface pressures have dropped overnight, and convective activity has increased, indicating an increase in organization.
Further organization will be possible over the next 12 – 24 hours, as 97L is currently located in a pocket of low wind shear.
Given the recent organization, and the pocket of lower wind shear, it is now quite possible 97L could briefly become a tropical depression or storm later today or tomorrow.
In a Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued at 9:50 AM EDT this morning, the National Hurricane Center upped the chance of 97L becoming a tropical cyclone to 50 percent (see figure 1).
If 97L does develop, it is unlikely to make it to the Gulf Coast intact as a tropical cyclone, because an approaching front, also mentioned in yesterday’s update, will increase wind shear. However, this is not set in stone, so stay tuned.
Regardless of development, heavy rain can still be expected for East Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, and west Alabama, and possibly the western Florida Panhandle, tonight/tomorrow going into the weekend (see figure 2).
