An area of low pressure is going to move out of the Mississippi Valley and into the Tennessee/Ohio Valley Monday. The low will bring a trialing cold front into the Southeast, and it will be preceded by rain and thunderstorms.
Considering model guidance is predicting CAPE (instability) will be in the 500 – 1500 J/kg range, it is possible there will be some strong/severe storms.
The Storm Prediction Center has defined a 15 percent (level 2 out of 5) risk area in their day 4 severe weather outlook; northern half of Louisiana, much of Mississippi, and much of western and northern Alabama are included (see figure 2).
However, it is important to note note that the outlook from the Storm Prediction Center is subject to change and is likely to be refined in subsequent outlooks.
While it is a bit too early to be specific, timing looks to be Monday afternoon into Tuesday morning, with all modes of severe weather (tornadoes, damaging winds, and hail) being possible.
