A surface low is expected to develop over the northwest Gulf Wednesday, and then lift northeast into the central Gulf Coast and Southeast Thursday.
This should bring widespread rain and some thunderstorms to south Texas and Louisiana New Year’s Day (Wednesday), and much of Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle by Thursday/Friday.
Heavy rain is looking likely. While it is a bit uncertain where exactly the axis of heaviest rain will set up, right now it appears it will set up from southeast Louisiana into north/central Alabama (see figure 1).
Furthermore, a warm front is also going to shift north out of the Gulf and could result in potential for some strong/severe storms.
The Storm Prediction Center has yet to define a risk area, but might do so tomorrow or Wednesday. If a risk area is defined, it will probably include southeast Louisiana, parts of Mississippi and Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle.
