On Tuesday, a deep, positively tilted upper-level trough is going to dig into the Plains allowing for robust moisture return. The trough will start to shift east Wednesday, and will kick an associated cold front into the Southeast by Thursday.
As the trough shifts east, a very strong mid-level jet stream to overspread a moist, unstable warm sector Wednesday/Thursday (see figure 1), with a strong low-level jet stream also likely to evolve at some point Wednesday or Thursday.
This setup will likely yield a multi-day severe weather threat from the lower Mississippi Valley to the Southeast between Tuesday and Thursday.
The Storm Prediction Center has outlined a level 1 (marginal) and level 2 (slight) risk area for parts of east Texas, Louisiana, and Mississippi for Tuesday.
A level 2 risk area has also been hatched for both Wednesday (see figure 2) and Thursday.
It is a bit early to speculate on specific timing and the overall magnitude of the threat, but it does appear the greatest potential for severe weather will be Wednesday and Thursday.
All modes of severe weather (tornadoes, damaging winds, and hail) look to be possible.
