A week of very active weather is ahead.
The combination of a stalled cold front and several disturbances early in the week, and a second system mid to late week, will result in multiple rounds of heavy rain from east Texas into the Southeast between tomorrow and Thursday.
Overall, 5 – 7″ of rain is forecast, but locally higher totals will be possible.
In their excessive rainfall outlook for Monday, the Weather Prediction Center has included northeast Louisiana and the northern half of Mississippi and Alabama in a moderate risk area (see figure 1), suggesting a rather high risk for flash flooding.
A severe weather threat is expected to evolve Wednesday into Thursday.
The Storm Prediction Center has defined a 30 percent risk area for parts of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama, and a broad 15 percent risk area.
It is still a bit early to get too specific. However, it does look like a squall line will develop along/ahead of a cold front late Wednesday and sweep quickly east into early Thursday.
