Surge of Cold Air Expected to Close Out February

Figure 1. ECMWF ensemble (EPS) mean showing anomalous cold in place across the central and eastern U.S. Thursday morning. Image: Tropical Tidbits

After another month of above-average temperatures, it appears likely that there will be a surge of anomalously cold air for the central and eastern U.S. to close out February.

There will be passage of a cold front across the Gulf Coast region Tuesday, with a reinforcing front expected Wednesday.

Figure 2. Modeled temperatures at 6 AM CST Thursday morning.

Temperatures will dip below average, with 20s and 30s likely across much of the region Wednesday night/Thursday morning (see figure 2)

However, sticking to the theme of this winter, temperatures will quickly rebound, and most likely return to above seasonal levels by next week.

Figure 3. Temperature outlook from the Climate Prediction Center for the 8 – 14 day period (March 2 – 8) showing a 33 to 50 percent chance of above-average temperatures across much of the contiguous US.

Looking at the first third of March, long-range model guidance indicates the cycle of above-average temperatures punctuated by abbreviated cold snaps will continue across the eastern two thirds of the nation.

This is reflected by the latest 8 – 14 day temperature outlook from the NOAA/NWS Climate Prediction Center.

Caleb Carmichael
Caleb Carmichael

Caleb is the owner of Gulf Coast Storm Center. He is currently an undergraduate student at Mississippi State University majoring in geoscience with a concentration in broadcast and operational meteorology. While not yet a meteorologist, Caleb has been providing weather updates, news, and analysis for the Gulf Coast since 2014.

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