A complex storm system is going to result in a very stormy pattern from east Texas into the Southeast between Tuesday and Thursday.
There will be potential for severe weather. Model guidance is advertising high bulk wind shear, but only marginal instability.
The Storm Prediction Center has outlined a level 2 out of 5 (slight) risk for severe weather for Tuesday which encompasses much of south/central Texas.
A 15 percent (level 2 out of 5) risk for severe weather has also been introduced for both Wednesday and Thursday.
As of now, it appears all modes of severe weather (tornadoes, damaging winds, and hail) will be possible.
In addition to severe weather, heavy rainfall will also be a concern. Anywhere from 1 – 5″ of rain is forecast from east Texas into the Southeast (see figure 1).
This will likely lead to renewed flooding issues – particularly across Mississippi and Alabama.
The axis of heaviest rain will likely stretch from Mississippi into central Georgia. However, model guidance has shifted the axis of heaviest rain quite a bit southward over the past few days, and additional shifts (either back north or farther south) can’t be ruled out.
