There is still a significant threat for severe weather across the South tomorrow.
Tonight
Storms will initially develop over east central Texas tonight, and then increase in coverage overnight and early tomorrow while progressing to the east.
There is an enhanced (level 3 out 5) risk for severe weather for a large area of Texas for through 7 AM CDT. Tornadoes, damaging winds, and hail will all be possible.
Tomorrow
A moderate (level 4 out of 5) risk for severe weather remains in place for parts of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama tomorrow.
Here is a rough estimate of when severe weather will be most likely for each region/state:
- East Texas: tomorrow morning.
- West Louisiana: tomorrow morning – afternoon.
- East Louisiana: tomorrow morning – night.
- Mississippi: tomorrow morning – night.
- Alabama: tomorrow afternoon – night.
- Florida Panhandle: tomorrow night.
However, there continues to be some uncertainty with respect to how convection (thunderstorms) will evolve.
It is fairly likely that a squall line will develop by tomorrow afternoon/evening. The question has to do with the development of supercell thunderstorms for which there is potential.
Strong, long-track tornadoes will become a real possibility if the potential for supercells is realized.
Regardless of supercell development, all modes of severe weather (tornadoes, damaging wind, and hail) will be possible.
