Last week at this time it was thought that there was a slim chance of tropical or subtropical development in the Gulf of Mexico this past weekend. An area of disturbed weather did form, but failed to develop into a tropical or subtropical cyclone.
However, it is looking like there will be another chance for the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season, which officially kicks off June 1, to get off to an early start this weekend.
An area of low pressure is expected to form in the vicinity of the Bahamas by Friday or Saturday.
There is a possibility (50 percent per a special tropical weather outlook issued by the National Hurricane Center) this low could develop into a tropical or subtropical cyclone over the weekend.
Taking a look at the latest model guidance, the ECMWF, GFS, UKMET, and CMC are in agreement on (sub)tropical development in the Southwest Atlantic over the weekend.
Should a (sub)tropical cyclone form, it would be named Arthur.
Right now, it is looking like any (sub)tropical cyclone would remain weak and head out to sea. However, those in the Bahamas and along the Southeast U.S. coast should keep an eye on this.
