Tropical or subtropical development is likely this weekend in the vicinity of the Bahamas.
An area of disturbed weather formed in the southeastern Gulf of Mexico yesterday. This area is now in the Straits of Florida, and will reach the northwestern Bahamas by late tomorrow or early Saturday.
Environmental conditions are likely to be conducive for a tropical or subtropical cyclone to form as the disturbance moves into, and then away from, the northwestern Bahamas late tomorrow into Saturday.
Furthermore, model guidance, including the ECMWF and GFS, is still supportive of tropical/subtropical development.
Consequently, the National Hurricane Center is now giving this disturbance a 40 percent (medium) chance of becoming a (sub)tropical cyclone over the next 2 days, and a 70 percent (high) chance over the next 5 days.
Based on the latest model guidance, a weak to moderate tropical or subtropical storm tracking away from the U.S. is most likely.
Squally weather will continue across south Florida into Saturday, but conditions should improve Sunday as what will likely be tropical or subtropical storm Arthur begins to move off to the northeast.
