An area of disturbed weather located over/near the east coast of Florida is associated with an elongated area of low pressure.
This area has been tagged Invest 91L by the National Hurricane Center and has a low chance (20 percent) of becoming a weak, short-lived tropical or subtropical depression or storm.
Invest 91L will move onshore tomorrow, likely between Jacksonville, FL and Wilmington, NC. Considering this, the window for development is limited (~ 24 hours).
Furthermore, wind shear is in the 20 to 40 knot range per the latest wind shear analysis from CIMSS. This is unfavorable for development.
However, despite the fact that 91L has time and wind shear working against it, there is some model support for development.
As of the 12z model cycle, both the ECMWF and GFS were in agreement on 91L becoming a tropical/subtropical depression tonight.
Regardless of development, Invest 91L will bring heavy rain and the potential for flash flooding to portions of northeast Florida, coastal Georgia, and the Carolina’s through tomorrow.
