Tropical development in the Gulf of Mexico is looking like a possibility next week.
There has been a consistent signal from model guidance for tropical development in the southern Gulf of Mexico between June 2 and 8.
The catalyst could be Tropical Depression Two in the eastern Pacific, which could cross over into the Bay of Campeche early next week.
The Central American Gyre (#CAG) that formed yesterday continues to move very slowly centered along the East Pacific coastline. Within the larger gyre, a smaller scale vortex Invest #91E has become sufficiently well organized to be declared #TD2E. pic.twitter.com/ywTWX16CaH
— Philippe Papin (@pppapin) May 30, 2020
Another potential catalyst could be a separate disturbance from something called a Central American gyre.
While development is possible, it is far from a guarantee. Upper-level ridging (high pressure) across the central and eastern U.S. could suppress any disturbance/remnant inland over Mexico/Central America.
The aforementioned scenario would make tropical development unlikely. However, if upper-level ridging is weak enough, it could allow for development in southern Gulf.
It is obviously too early for specifics, and there is nothing to be worried about as of now.
The bottom line is that tropical development is a possibility in the southern Gulf next week, and if you live along the Gulf Coast you should monitor the forecast.
