Tropical development is now likely in Gulf of Mexico sometime this week.
Model guidance has come into better agreement on the idea of tropical cyclone formation in the southwest Gulf/Bay of Campeche between tomorrow and Saturday.
The operational ECMWF, UKMET, and GFS are now in agreement on tropical development in the Gulf by Sunday. Additionally, ensemble guidance has continued to signal development.
Consequently, the National Hurricane Center has defined a high (80 percent) chance for tropical development in the southwest Gulf/Bay of Campeche both over the next 2 day and 5 days.
There is still ample uncertainty with regard to how any potential development will evolve.
It is still possible that the remnants of Tropical Depression Andrea, which developed in the east Pacific but has since move inland of Central America, could spark development. Alternatively, a separate disturbance from the Central American gyre (CAG) that spawned Andrea could be a catalyst for development.
Another possible outcome is that Andrea’s remnants regenerate over the Bay of Campeche, move back into Mexico, and an entirely different system develops from the CAG after.
Should a tropical cyclone form (there is still a chance of no development), it is impossible to know where it will ultimately track or how strong it might become at this juncture.
However, it is worth noting that, at this time, model guidance is favoring a north/ northwest movement toward the western or central Gulf Coast by next weekend/early next week.
If you do live along the western/central Gulf Coast, this is still nothing to be overly concerned about. But you should keep an eye on the forecast this week.
