Tropical Depression Three has strengthened overnight. Maximum sustained winds have increased to 35 mph, and the pressure has dropped to 1003 mb. Convective (thunderstorm) activity has also increased.
A USAF reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate later this morning.
Given the increase in organization overnight, it would not be surprising if the recon aircraft finds enough for an upgrade to Tropical Storm Cristobal.
Forecast for Tropical Depression Three
Continued intensification is likely over next next 24 to 36 hours. However, the forecast beyond tomorrow remains uncertain.
Model guidance has recently come into better agreement on Tropical Depression Three remaining over the Bay of Campeche before being pulled north by a trough this weekend.
This is in line with the forecast from the National Hurricane Center, and would favor a stronger system due to less land interaction.
However, the GFS and HWRF are predicting Tropical Depression Three to make landfall in Mexico tomorrow afternoon. Therefore, while looking less likely, a scenario in which Tropical Depression Three dissipates and an entirely new system forms can’t yet be ruled out.
Impacts to Gulf Coast Likely
Regardless of what exactly happens with Tropical Depression Three, there is increasing confidence that a tropical cyclone will be tracking toward the western or central Gulf Coast late this weekend/early next week.
Because of the aforementioned uncertainty, it is impossible to say much more than that.
Interests from Texas to the Florida Panhandle should continue to closely monitor the forecast for Tropical Depression Three.
