Cristobal made landfall west of Ciudad del Carmen, Mexico this morning as a tropical storm with 60 mph winds.
Forecast for Cristobal
Over the next day or two Cristobal will likely remain over Mexico. This will cause weakening. An upper-level trough will then pull Cristobal northward into the central Gulf of Mexico by Friday or Saturday.
As Cristobal approaches the Gulf Coast Sunday, an upper-level ridge will build in as the trough lifts out/weakens and could induce a turn to the north-northwest or northwest.
It is still a bit early to pin down exactly where the center of Cristobal will make landfall, but it should be somewhere between Houston, TX and New Orleans, LA sometime Sunday/Monday.
Some restrengthening is likely once Cristobal is back over the Gulf. However, model guidance is advertising mid-level dry air to be present as Cristobal moves into the northern Gulf, and this could limit intensification.
With respect to intensity, a strong, but large/broad and east-weighted, tropical storm is the most likely outcome right now.
Impacts
Heavy rain can be expected along the central and eastern Gulf Coast from Cristobal.
Since exact track/intensity is still uncertain, it is impossible to pin down what other specific impacts can be expected and where.
If you live along the west/central Gulf Coast, anywhere from southeast Texas to the Florida Panhandle, you should continue to monitor the progress of Cristobal.
