Tropical Storm Fay formed just offshore of the coast of North Carolina this afternoon.
Fay originated from a mesoscale convective vortex (MCV) that developed in the Gulf of Mexico last weekend.
Yesterday a small surface vortex formed from the western-most disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico & was designated Invest #98L before it moved onshore overnight.
No development expected as the vortex remains over land, but still has a decent banding structure on radar currently. https://t.co/1613mTLw2L pic.twitter.com/xxaWwX5bXh
— Philippe Papin (@pppapin) July 6, 2020
The MCV was designated Invest 98L by the National Hurricane Center Sunday, and moved into the Florida Panhandle Sunday night. Invest 98L eventually emerged in the Atlantic yesterday.
This afternoon, satellite and radar imagery, surface observations, and data from an USAF reconnaissance aircraft indicate that Invest 98L has acquired sufficient organization to be classified a tropical storm.
As of the 8 PM EDT advisory from the National Hurricane Center, Fay had maximum sustained winds of 45 mph and a minimum central pressure of 1005 mb.
The warm waters of the Gulf Stream and slight strengthening and light to moderate wind shear could allow for some slight intensification over the next 12 to 24 hours.
Fay is expected to track generally north to north-northeast. Landfall is likely somewhere in the Mid-Atlantic tomorrow or early Saturday.
The primary threat from Fay will be heavy rain from the eastern Mid-Atlantic north into New England. However, gusty winds (up to tropical storm force) and high surf/coastal flooding can also be expected.
