There are heating up a bit with three different systems being monitored for possible development.
The first is an area of low pressure near the Texas/Louisiana coast (Invest 90L).
Invest 90L
Development is unlikely due to the fact that Invest 90L will be moving into Texas within the next 12 to 18 hours.
Invest 90L is being given a low chance (10%) of development by the National Hurricane Center.
Tropical Wave
The second is a tropical wave moving through Cuba and the Bahamas. It will be moving into the Gulf tomorrow where upper-level winds might become more conducive for development.
Right now there is little to no support for development from operational model guidance (ECMWF, GFS, or UKMET). However, there is modest support from for development from the ECMWF ensembles (EPS).
The National Hurricane Center is currently giving this system a low chance (30%) of developing over both the next 5 days.
Invest 99L
The third system is Invest 99L, a small system way out in the Atlantic that poses no immediate threat.
Invest 99L has a fairly robust circulation. This, combined with low wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures, could allow for Invest 99L to develop.
Favorable trends in appearance for #Invest99L today. While convection remains limited, circulation is tighter & more circular. Easterly shear will lessen soon, and if SAL to the north is not significantly entrained, the low could form moist bubble that facilitates more convection pic.twitter.com/0qC53CmQH8
— Levi Cowan (@TropicalTidbits) July 20, 2020
However, there is some dry air to the north which could hinder development.
Looking at the latest model guidance, the ECMWF, GFS, and UKMET all predict some slight development of Invest 99L over the day or two.
The National Hurricane Center has put the chance of development at 20 percent over the next 5 days.
