The Atlantic is definitely starting to perk up with regard to tropical activity.
While Invest 90L has moved into Texas without developing, there are still two other disturbances to keep tabs on: Invest 91L in the southeast Gulf of Mexico and Tropical Depression Seven in the eastern Atlantic.
Invest 91L
Invest 91L is currently disorganized. However, warm sea surface temperatures and wind shear in the 5 to 15 knot range (light) could allow for development as Invest 91L tracks west-northwest across the Gulf.
Right now the National Hurricane Center is giving Invest 92L a medium chance (40%) of development over the next 5 days.
Invest 91L will likely move into Texas or southwest Louisiana Friday or Saturday. If Invest 91L does develop, we will likely be looking at a tropical storm at most.
Regardless of development, Invest 91L will bring heavy rain to the western Gulf Coast this weekend.
Tropical Depression Seven
Tropical Depression Seven (TD 7) has formed in the far east Atlantic.
TD 7 will be guided to the west by a ridge to its north over the next several days, reaching the Lesser Antilles by Friday or Saturday.
Light wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures should allow for some intensification. However, there is a possibility of dry air entertainment which could put a wrench in the intensity forecast.
Current thinking is intensification through the next 72 hours with weakening and/or dissipation on approach to the Lesser Antilles.
The official forecast from the National Hurricane Center is for TD 7 to become a strong tropical storm by Wednesday or Thursday, with passage through the Lesser Antilles as a moderate to strong tropical storm.
TD 7 is unlikely to pose a threat to the U.S. mainland, with the reliable ECMWF, GFS and UKMET model predicting the depression to open back up into a tropical wave in the eastern Caribbean this weekend.
However, it wouldn’t hurt to keep an eye on the forecast for TD 7 this week – just in case.
