With Hanna now having made landfall in Texas yesterday evening, it is time to shift attention to Invest 92L, located in the far east Atlantic.
Invest 92L is being given a high chance (90%) of developing into a tropical cyclone over the next 5 days by the National Hurricane Center.
Overall, environmental conditions appear conducive for development. There is some dry air to the west and north, however, and this could become an issue.
Invest 92L is also both broad/large and moving fairly quick (20 mph), which will both work against organization. This doesn’t mean Invest 92L won’t develop, but rather development should be gradual.
There is good agreement among global model guidance for development of Invest 92L.
The ECMWF, GFS, and UKMET are all predicting Invest 92L to become a tropical cyclone by tomorrow or Tuesday with a possible impact for the Lesser Antilles Wednesday/Thursday.
While models are in agreement on development, they differ on intensity. The GFS and UKMET favor a strong system, and the ECMWF favors a weaker system.
Models also diverge on what will happen with Invest 92L this weekend going into next week.
Potential is there for this to become a threat to the Gulf Coast, Florida, or Eastern Seaboard in about 7 to 10 days. However, a track out to sea is possible.
If Invest 92L does develop, it will take on the name Isaias.
