As expected, the Atlantic is likely to become active this week. There are now two tropical waves to watch for development.
The leading wave is located about 700 miles east of the Windward Islands. The wave’s fast speed is likely to limit development in the near term, but it could slow down in the western Caribbean by mid to late week where conditions could be conducive for development.
Currently the National Hurricane Center is giving this wave a medium chance (40%) of developing into a tropical cyclone over the next 5 days.
Model support is limited. The ECMWF and GFS were not predicting development as of their latest runs. However, in today’s 12z run the UKMET was predicting this wave to become a tropical cyclone in the western Caribbean by Thursday/Friday. There is also some support for development from the ECMWF ensembles (EPS).
This wave could move into the Gulf of Mexico next weekend, but this is far from a certainty.
The second wave is just off the coast of Africa. Unlike with the past few systems to take the trek across the east Atlantic, the Saharan air layer (SAL) is likely to be less of an issue (it has retreated north a good bit).
Development is possible as the wave moves west. The National Hurricane Center is giving it medium chance (40%) of becoming a tropical cyclone over the next 5 days.
There is decent model support for development, with the ECMWF and UKMET both predicting a tropical cyclone to form by Wednesday or Thursday. The EPS and GFS ensembles (GEFS) were also signaling development as of today’s 12z runs.
It is too early to say if this wave will threaten the Caribbean or United States. However, ensemble guidance is depicting a strong ridge (high pressure) extending across the Atlantic late this week into next weekend. Should this verify, it would likely prevent a track out to sea.
