Invest 98L was upgraded to Tropical Depression Thirteen last night (TD 13), and is expected to to become a tropical storm later today or early tomorrow.
TD 13 will be on a west-northwest track over the next day or two per the latest track guidance, and will likely reach the southeast Bahamas by late Saturday/early Sunday. Right now it appears the center of TD 13 will remain north of the Greater Antilles, but this is far from certain.
Beyond this, model guidance is predicting TD 13 to continue on a west-northwest trajectory toward Florida and the Gulf due to strong ridging (high pressure) across the southwest Atlantic. Of course, this is in the 3 – 5 day range and therefore could change.
TD 13 likely won’t strengthen significantly over the next 24 to 72 hours due to an uptick in wind shear, but should at least become a tropical storm.
Once TD 13 enters the Bahamas models are advertising a much more favorable environment for intensification making strengthening probable. However, the amount of intensification is uncertain and will partially depend on the cyclone’s interaction with the Greater Antilles.
Right now the National Hurricane Center is forecasting a strong tropical storm. This is mostly due to vast differences among the model guidance.
The GFS, HWRF, and HMON are indicating the possibility of strengthening hurricane, while the ECMWF is showing only an open tropical wave.
It is worth noting that model guidance has not performed well with TD 13 so far.
If you live along the Southeast U.S. coast (including Florida and the eastern Gulf Coast) it is advisable that you closely monitor the progress of TD 13 over the coming days.
