Tropical Depression Fourteen (TD 14), located in the northwest Caribbean, has yet to become a tropical storm. That should change soon, though. Tropical Depression Thirteen (TD 13) became Tropical Storm Laura this morning, so TD 14 will take on the name Marco.
Satellite imagery shows that there isn’t much convection (thunderstorms) around the center, but a reconnaissance aircraft did find a closed low-level center this morning.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for strengthening over the next day to day and a half. Tomorrow night/early Sunday TD 14 is likely to weaken a bit due to interaction with the Yucatan Peninsula.
TD 14 should move the Gulf of Mexico Sunday. Some restrengthening will be likely, and it is possible TD 14 could become a hurricane over the west/central Gulf. Right now landfall is expected to occur Tuesday anywhere from Brownsville, TX Morgan City, LA based on the latest track guidance.
It should be noted that an increase in shear could induce weakening by Monday/Tuesday. This outcome is favored by the GFS, ECMWF, and UKMET.
TD 14 will likely impact the western and central Gulf Coast early next week. However, placement and magnitude of these impacts is still uncertain.
If you live along the western or central Gulf Coast be sure to monitor the progress of TD 14 over the coming days.
An update on Tropical Storm Laura will be posted this evening.
