Tropical Depression Thirteen strengthened into a tropical storm this morning, beating out Tropical Depression Fourteen for the name Laura.
Laura currently has maximum sustained winds of 45 mph and is not that well organized. According to the National Hurricane Center the mid and low level centers are not vertically aligned, and this is preventing any real strengthening.
Confidence is high that Laura will move near into the Gulf of Mexico on Monday due to ridging (high pressure) over the southwest Atlantic, possibly passing through the Florida Straits and Florida Keys first. However, the question is how strong will Laura be at this point.
It is still possible Laura will track through the Greater Antilles this weekend. As a result, the long-term forecast (both intensity and track) remain highly uncertain.
A track through the Greater Antilles would likely favor a weaker storm moving into the Gulf and likely a track farther west. Conversely, a track just to the north of the Greater Antilles would could result in a stronger storm moving into the Gulf and possibly a track a bit farther east.
Adding further uncertainty is Tropical Depression Fourteen (TD 14). It is possible TD 14 could cause Laura to weaken, track farther west, or both.
It is worth noting that the the GFS and ECMWF now have Laura becoming a hurricane in the Gulf next week. This is a significant change and is more in line the with HWRF and HMON which predict Laura to become a major hurricane in the Gulf.
The National Hurricane Center is currently forecasting Laura to become a category 1 in the Gulf next week, with landfall in southeast Louisiana Wednesday.
Interests from Texas to Florida should closely monitor Laura’s progress this weekend going into next week.
