Not much has changed with Tropical Storm Laura. As was stated in yesterday’s update, the long-term forecast for Laura is dependent on how Laura is affected by interaction with the Greater Antilles.
Laura skirted just south of Puerto Rico today without being significantly disrupted, but will be tracking directly across Hispaniola tonight and tomorrow morning, and possibly Cuba tomorrow afternoon through Monday.
If there is a center reformation north of Hispaniola and/or Cuba tomorrow, this could allow Laura to significantly strengthen in the Gulf. However, if there is a lot of land interaction it could limit how strong Laura could get.
The National Hurricane Center is currently forecasting Laura to become a category 1 hurricane. However, it is possible this could be a bit too conservative, as the GFS, HWRF and HMON models are much more aggressive with intensification of Laura in the Gulf.
Right now it is likely Laura will track into the southeast Gulf of Mexico Monday/Tuesday due to a ridge (high pressure) over the southwest Atlantic.
Laura should turn to the northwest at some point, but when this occurs will depend on the westward extent of the aforementioned ridge. This will ultimately dictate where Laura makes landfall along the Gulf Coast. Right now model guidance is not in complete agreement on how far west the ridge will extend.
The latest forecast for the National Hurricane Center is now for a landfall Wednesday afternoon in southeast Louisiana. However, this could still change, and everyone from the Florida Panhandle to Texas should continue to monitor the progress of Laura.
Those in the Florida Keys should also expect at least tropical storm conditions Monday, and possibly into Tuesday.
It should be noted that there is potential for areas impacted by Marco to also be impacted by Laura just a day or two later. Also, it is is now likely Marco and Laura will stay far enough apart that one is unlikely to have much influence on the other.
