The Atlantic is very active in terms of tropical activity, with the National Hurricane Center monitoring 4 disturbances and two tropical storms: Paulette and Rene. Of these systems, the one in the Bahamas is of most interest for the Gulf Coast. It has been designated Invest 96L.
Invest 96L is currently not too organized, but is producing a large area of shower and thunderstorms activity. Development into a tropical cyclone (TC) is unlikely over the next day or two.
However, Invest 96L will move into the eastern Gulf of Mexico Sunday/Monday where upper-level winds (wind shear) are expected to be conducive for development. This could allow for Invest 96L to become a TC.
Model support has been gradually increasing, and the National Hurricane Center is now giving Invest 96L a medium chance (60%) of developing over the next 5 days.
Regardless of development, heavy rain can be expected along the northern Gulf Coast next week.
The other system in the Gulf (yellow) isn’t likely to develop, but will bring increased rain chances to southern Texas this weekend and early next week.
In addition to Invest 96L and the other Gulf system, a tropical wave off of Africa that has been designated Invest 95L (red) will also be worth monitoring as it will likely make it farther west than Paulette and Rene.
