Tropical Depression Nineteen (TD 19) made landfall in Miami-Dade County, FL overnight, and will emerge in the southeast Gulf of Mexico this afternoon or tonight.
TD 19 will likely become a tropical storm at some point over the next 24 hours.
A ridge (high pressure) currently steering the system west will erode some by tonight/early tomorrow. This should allow TD 19 to turn to the northwest.
Right now it is expected TD 19 will make landfall somewhere between Morgan City, LA and Destin, FL Monday or Tuesday.
Some model guidance is indicating TD 19 could slow significantly or even stall near the coast or just after landfall. This will be something to closely watch for.
It is expected low shear and warm sea surface temperatures will allow for TD 19 to strengthen over the next 3 days. The official forecast from the National Hurricane Center is forecasting TD 19 to become a strong tropical storm on approach to the northern Gulf Coast.
However, it is quite possible TD 19 could become a hurricane, as is shown by the GFS, UKMET, and some other model guidance.
Regardless of hurricane status, TD 19 is likely to bring heavy rain, wind, and storm surge to the northern Gulf Coast next week, possibly from the western Florida Panhandle to southeast Louisiana. Placement and magnitude of these impacts will depend on the exact track and strength of TD 19.
It should be noted that impacts could extend well away from the center of TD 19.
Interests from southeast Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle should closely monitor the progress of TD 19.
