Sally is slightly stronger this morning. As of the 8 AM EDT advisory maximum sustained winds had increased to 50 mph and the pressure had dropped to 996 mb.
Movement is currently to the west-northwest at 13 mph. A turn to the northwest and then north is expected tomorrow/Tuesday.
Forecast for Sally
Landfall is likely to occur in southeast Louisiana or south Mississippi late Monday or sometime Tuesday. Model guidance, including the ECMWF and GFS, are in good agreement on this. However, there is still time for slight adjustments in track both west and east.
Over the next day or two Sally will be traversing an environment with low wind shear and sea surface temperatures of 29 to 30 degrees Celsius. This will support intensification, and Sally is likely to become a hurricane.
The official forecast from the National Hurricane Center has Sally making landfall as a 100 mph category 2 hurricane.
However, rapid intensification can’t be ruled out, and it is possible Sally could make a run at major hurricane status (category 3 or higher). This is a solution shown by HWRF model. It should also be noted an uptick in shear is expected as Sally nears landfall, and this could cause intensification to level off.
Impacts
Sally will bring a storm surge of 4 to 11′ from Port Fourchon, LA to Ocean Springs, MS.
Hurricane-force winds (> 74 mph) will also be likely in southeast Louisiana and south Mississippi with hurricane-force gusts possible as far east as coastal Alabama. Tropical-storm-force winds (> 39 mph) will be possible along the Florida Panhandle.
In addition, 6 to 15″ of rain will be likely in southeast Louisiana, south Mississippi, south Alabama, and the western Florida Panhandle.
Sally is expected to slow down substantially near/after landfall. This is likely to exacerbate the issue of heavy rain, flash flooding, and storm surge.
There will also be the possibility for waterspouts/isolated tornadoes with outer bands/squalls.
Warning/Watch Summary
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for…
* Port Fourchon Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama Border
* Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Lake Borgne
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* Grand Isle Louisiana to Ocean Springs Mississippi
* Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas including metropolitan New
Orleans
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for…
* Mississippi/Alabama Border to the Alabama/Florida Border
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
* East of Ocean Springs to the Alabama/Florida Border
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* East of Ocean Springs to Indian Pass
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* Indian Pass to Ochlockonee River Florida
