Sally has strengthened a bit this morning.
As of the 7 AM CDT advisory, maximum sustained winds were up to 65 mph, the minimum central pressure was down to 994 mb, and movement west-northwest at 8 mph.
Forecast for Sally
Sally is expected to become a hurricane before landfall. However, given that Sally hasn’t strengthened any overnight, some of the more extreme solutions (i.e. a strong category 2 or category 3 hurricane) are unlikely to come to fruition.
The National Hurricane Center is forecasting a 85 mph category 1 at landfall, but it is still possible Sally could become a low-end category 2.
There is uncertainty with the short-term forecast track for Sally. Sally is going to slow down tonight and tomorrow, and could even stall, as the ridge of high pressure steering it begins to erode/back to the east. A trough will then turn the system north/northeast. Where exactly Sally turns will dictate where Sally makes landfall.
Currently, landfall is expected tomorrow, but could be anywhere from Grand Isle, LA to Mobile, AL.
Impacts
Storm surge, heavy rain, and flash flooding are shaping up to be the main impacts from Sally.
A storm surge of 3 – 11′ is forecast for portions of southeast Louisiana and southern Mississippi.
Hurricane-force winds (> 74 mph) will also be likely in southeast Louisiana and south Mississippi with hurricane-force gusts possible as far east as coastal Alabama. Tropical-storm-force winds (> 39 mph) will be possible along the Florida Panhandle.
Anywhere from 6 to 20″ of rain will be likely in southeast Louisiana, south Mississippi, southwest Alabama, and the western Florida Panhandle.
The decrease in forward speed will exacerbate the issue of storm surge and flash flooding. In addition, there will be a risk for tornadoes/waterspouts.
Warning/Watch Summary
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for…
* Port Fourchon Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida Border
* Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Lake Borgne
* Mobile Bay
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* Morgan City Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama Border
* Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas including metropolitan New
Orleans
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Mississippi/Alabama Border to Indian Pass Florida
* Intracoastal City Louisiana to west of Morgan City
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
* Mississippi/Alabama Border to the Alabama/Florida Border
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* Indian Pass to Ochlockonee River Florida
