Sally has finally started to move north. As of the 4 PM CDT advisory maximum sustained winds were 80 mph, the minimum central pressure was 979 mb, and movement was north at 2 mph.
Forecast for Sally
Model guidance continued to shift east overnight and today, and landfall is now likely somewhere between Mobile, AL and Pensacola, FL. Furthermore, model guidance has also trended toward landfall being late tomorrow morning/tomorrow afternoon as opposed to tonight/early tomorrow morning.
Sally did weaken overnight and today. Restrengthening is not forecast due to increasing shear and up welling. However, some restrengthening is favored by the ECMWF, GFS, and UKMET prior to landfall and therefore can’t be ruled out.
Sally should will weaken rapidly after moving inland and should be somewhere over Georgia Thursday/Friday.
Timing
Tropical storm conditions have been spreading across the Florida Panhandle, southwest Alabama, south Mississippi, and extreme southeast Louisiana today.
Hurricane conditions will most likely begin to spread across south Mississippi, southwest Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle tomorrow morning, but could do so as early as late tonight.
Impacts
A peak storm surge of 3 – 6′ is expected from the Mouth of the Mississippi River to the western Florida Panhandle.
Hurricane-force winds (>74 mph) will be likely from south Mississippi to the western Florida Panhandle (within the hurricane warning area, see warning/watch summary below).
Anywhere from 10 to 20″ of rain will be likely across south Mississippi, southwest Alabama, and the western Florida Panhandle. This will likely lead to life-threatening and potentially historic flash flooding. Sally’s slow forward speed will exacerbate the issue of storm surge and flash flooding.
A risk for waterspouts/tornadoes will also continue to exist as outer bands/squalls rotate onshore.
Warning/Watch Summary
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for…
* Mouth of the Mississippi River to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line
Florida
* Mobile Bay
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* East of Bay St. Louis to Navarre Florida
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* East of Navarre Florida to Indian Pass Florida
* Bay St. Louis westward to Grand Isle Louisiana
