Tropical Depression Twenty-Six formed in the central Caribbean last night and strengthened into Tropical Storm Delta this morning. As of 8 AM EDT Delta was located just south of Jamaica moving west-northwest at 9 mph. Maximum sustained winds were 40 mph with a minimum central pressure of 1004 mb.
A ridge (high pressure) will keep Delta on a west-northwest to northwest track for the next 2 to 3 days. Delta will move into the southern Gulf late tomorrow or early Wednesday.
The latest SHIPS intensity guidance indicates Delta will have a favorable environment for intensification while traversing the west Caribbean and southern/central Gulf. Considering this, Delta should strengthen into a hurricane sometime over the next few days.
By about Thursday or Friday the aforementioned ridge is expected to breakdown as a trough approaches from the west. This should induce a turn to the north/northeast.
It is likely Delta will make landfall somewhere along the north-central Gulf Coast Friday or Saturday. It is too early to pin down an exact landfall point. The latest model guidance is clustered on southeast Louisiana/Mississippi, but this could change.
The National Hurricane Center is forecasting Delta to peak as a category 2 hurricane with 105 mph winds, but it is certainly possible Delta could become a major hurricane given the favorable environment.
However, it would not be surprising if there was some weakening on approach to the Gulf Coast. Sea surface temperatures in the northern Gulf have cooled from a combination of recent cold fronts and Hurricane Sally. Additionally, the upper-level trough should cause an increase in wind shear by about Thursday/Friday. This possibility is reflected in the latest run of the HWRF and HMON hurricane models.
It should also be noted that interaction with Tropical Storm Gamma, currently located near the Yucatan Peninsula, could result in some changes to the forecast for Delta in the coming days.
Interests along the northern Gulf Coast should closely monitor the progress of Delta.
