Hurricane Delta is re-intensifying over the southwest Gulf of Mexico this evening. The satellite presentation has improved. Data from two hurricane hunter aircraft currently investigating the storm shows the pressure is dropping and that the eye wall is now closed.
As of the 7 PM CDT advisory, Delta had maximum sustained winds of 90 mph and a minimum pressure of 973 mb. Movement was northwest at 17 mph.
Forecast for Delta
Delta will remain in a favorable environment for intensification for at least the next 24 to 36 hours, and it is likely Delta will retain major hurricane status.
Late tomorrow into early Friday an approaching trough over Texas will cause Delta to turn north and then north-northeast. Track guidance has been in excellent agreement on a Louisiana landfall for the past 3 to 4 days, and this is the most likely outcome.
More specifically, landfall is likely to be somewhere between Morgan City, LA and the TX/LA border. Timing looks to be Friday afternoon or evening.
An increase in wind shear and cooler sea surface temperatures are still expected to result in some weakening on approach to the Gulf Coast. Despite this, Delta will likely remain a strong hurricane (category 2 or 3) at landfall.
Impacts
Delta will bring a life-threatening storm surge to the Gulf Coast. A peak surge of 7 – 11′ is expected to a portion of coastal Louisiana.
In addition, Delta will bring a wind impact, including hurricane-force winds. There will also be a threat for flash flooding as a result of heavy rainfall.
Tropical storm conditions will be likely as far east as southeast Louisiana. A risk for tornadoes will also exist with outer squalls/bands.
Watch and Warning Summary
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for…
* High Island Texas to the Alabama/Florida border including
Calcasieu Lake, Vermilion Bay, Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas,
Lake Borgne and Mobile Bay
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
* High Island Texas to Grand Isle Louisiana
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Rio Lagartos to Dzilam Mexico
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* San Luis Pass to west of High Island Texas
* East of Grand Isle Louisiana to Bay St. Louis Mississippi,
including New Orleans
* Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas
