An area of low pressure in the northwest Caribbean Sea, Invest 95L, is very likely to become a tropical cyclone, possibly as early as this afternoon or evening. The National Hurricane Center has placed the chance of development at near 100 percent over both the next 2 and 5 days.
Wind shear is light (5 – 15 kts) and sea surface temperatures are more than warm enough (29 to 30 degrees Celsius) to support development.
Looking at the latest model guidance, the ECMWF, UKMET, and GFS all predict Invest 95L to develop into a tropical cyclone sometime within the next day or two.
Invest 95L is expected to move into the Gulf of Mexico by Tuesday. The latest model guidance does suggest a track toward the northern Gulf Coast mid to late next week.
However, it is far too early to know where exactly Invest 95L will track or how strong it might become.
Since a naming list based on the Greek alphabet has been in use since September, Invest 95L will take on the name Zeta.
