Tropical Storm Zeta strengthened a fair bit overnight and is now strong tropical storm. As of the 10 AM CDT advisory maximum sustained winds were 70 mph, the pressure was 992 mb, and movement was northwest at 10 mph.
Forecast for Zeta
Zeta will make landfall in the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula tonight, possibly as a hurricane.
Tomorrow morning Zeta will emerge in the Gulf of Mexico. A turn to the north and then north-northeast or northeast is expected late tomorrow/early Wednesday due to an approaching upper-level shortwave trough.
With track guidance tightly clustered, there is increasing confidence that Zeta will make landfall somewhere between Morgan City, LA and Destin, FL. Landfall looks to be sometime Wednesday afternoon or Wednesday night based on the latest model guidance, but could get pushed back a bit to early Thursday.
It is possible Zeta could make two landfalls along the Gulf Coast: an initial one in southeast Louisiana followed by a second along the coast of Mississippi, Alabama, or the western Florida Panhandle.
Interaction with the Yucatan Peninsula is likely to cause Zeta to weaken a bit. However, there will be a window for Zeta to restrengthen over the Gulf tomorrow and Wednesday. After this time, an increase in wind shear from the aforementioned trough and increasingly cooler sea surface temperatures should induce some weakening.
Zeta is expected to become a hurricane. However, it remains to be seen if Zeta will remain at hurricane strength at landfall along the Gulf Coast. This, at least in part, will depend on how much Zeta is able to strengthen over the Gulf.
Impacts/Timing
As of now tropical storm conditions are likely from southeast Louisiana to the western Florida Panhandle Wednesday, including high/gusty winds and heavy rain. A storm surge is also likely. Outer bands/squalls will pose a risk for tornadoes/waterspouts.
While placement will be dependent on the exact track of Zeta, hurricane conditions will also be possible for a portion of the northern Gulf Coast.
