Zeta is once again a tropical storm after briefly becoming a hurricane yesterday afternoon prior to landfall in the Yucatan Peninsula. As of the 4 PM CDT advisory maximum sustained winds were 65 mph, pressure was 984 mb, and movement was northwest at 14 mph.
Forecast for Zeta
The center of Zeta has since emerged off of the Yucatan into the southern Gulf of Mexico. There is a window for Zeta to strengthen. Cooler sea surface temperatures and an increase in wind shear should induce some weakening on approach to the northern Gulf Coast.
The National Hurricane Center is forecasting Zeta to be a category 1 hurricane at landfall. However, it is possible Zeta could weaken to a strong tropical storm prior to landfall. Regardless, there is not much difference between a strong tropical storm and a low-end category 1 hurricane with respect to impacts.
There is a high confidence that Zeta will make landfall between Morgan City, LA and Dauphin Island, AL late tomorrow/early Thursday. Two landfalls remain possible, with one being in southeast Louisiana and a second in coastal Mississippi or Alabama.
Zeta will rapidly move off to the northeast, and across the Southeast, Thursday.
Impacts
Zeta will bring a multitude of hazards/impacts:
- A storm surge with a peak of 5 to 8 feet from the Mouth of the Pearl River to Dauphin Island, AL.
- Hurricane conditions to southeast Louisiana, southeast Mississippi, and southwest Alabama.
- Tropical storm conditions to the western Florida Panhandle.
- A risk for tornadoes/waterspouts in outer bands/squalls.
- Heavy rain/flash flooding across southeast Louisiana, parts of Mississippi and Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle. However, Zeta will be moving quite quickly, so flash flooding shouldn’t be a significant issue.
Timing
Tropical storm conditions will likely begin to push onshore tomorrow afternoon into tomorrow evening. Hurricane conditions will likely arrive within the Hurricane Warning area (see watch/warning summary below) tomorrow evening/night.
Watch/Warning Summary
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for…
* Mouth of the Atchafalaya River to Navarre Florida
* Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, Pensacola Bay and Mobile Bay
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* Morgan City Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama border
* Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Mississippi/Alabama border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* West of Morgan City to Intracoastal City Louisiana
